In 2000, Fairfax County was Red. In 2004, it turned blue. This year, it stayed blue. Not much of a surprise there - its Board of Supervisors has been Democrat controlled for years.
In 2000 and 2004, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City and Prince William County were red. 2008 finds all four now turned blue, for a solid blue block in the northeast part of the state. That is the huge shocker this year, as they had went for George Allen in the 2006 Senate race, not a friendly cycle to the GOP as he lost by 7000 votes statewide.
Precinct evaluation:
Back in February, I posted some comparison numbers in voter turnout in the primaries, compared to the Bush-Gore and Bush-Kerry vote totals. I noted our precinct went 12:9 for Bush both times (54-42 in 2000, 56-43 in 2004), one of six precincts in the City, which when for Bush both times. This year - not only did McCain not find the similar split, but actually lost head-to-head 11:10 against Obama, 1134-977. Now, the City counts absentee ballots in a separate “central absentee precinct”, but McCain won zero of the six precincts in the city - the closest he got was losing the first precinct by two votes - there were three write-ins and third-party candidates netted 24 votes. By contrast, Frank Wolf, the incumbent Republican congressman, won all six precincts over his Democrat challenger, including an 11:7 ratio in our precinct.
In 2000, Bush won all six precincts, by an aggregate total of 54-42. Statewide, it was 52-44, so Manassas outperformed Bush’s state percentages by 2 points. In 2004, Bush won the city 56-43 . Statewide, it was 53-45, amounting to a three points better than the statewide numbers. The near final 2008 numbers show McCain lost the state 47-51, but lost the City 43-55, a four point underperformance compared to the state numbers.
Depressing. But the Frank Wolf numbers give some hope. Wolf was one of the members that stayed during the August recess on the offshore drilling issue. Wolf won 63-36 in 2004 and a narrower 57-40 over this year’s opponent in 2006. The city margin was almost unchanged in 2008 in the 10th district race, even as Allen won the City 43:40 in 2006, Gilmore lost the City 35-63, despite having won the City in the 1997 governor’s race 42:26 (61-37), while winning statewide by 96:73 (55-42). By comparison, Gilmore’s 2008 Senate opponent, Mark Warner, lost the City 53-45 in the 2001 Governor’s race, which he won statewide 52-47 over Mark Earley. Gilmore trailed Warner by a wider margin than McCain-Obama.
Some of Warner’s recognition has a large part to do with his following John Warner in the same seat. None of Warner’s advertisements mentioned his party affiliation. Sure some voters may have thought they were related. Nevermind his tax-raising days as Governor. Some say there was resistance to Gilmore due to the GOP using a convention to select the Senate nominee, rather than a primary.
Turnout.
In the aforementioned precinct, fewer voters cast ballots in 2008 (2131) compared to 2004 (2210), a 3.5% decrease. Citywide, 12903 voted for President in 2004, while 13627 voted this year of 18898 registered, a 5.6% increase. Perhaps the apparent decrease of the precinct shows up in the Central absentee precinct, which jumped from 1023 in 2004 to 2266 this year. By comparison, in 2000, 12410 votes were cast for President citywide, meaning the 2004 numbers were up 3.9% over 2000. At the precinct, it was 2175 votes cast, so 2000 turnout was higher than 2008 in the precinct, but lower than 2004. Again, the central absentee number was but 624 in 2000.
One wonders on the nationwide turnout, at 62-56M is a few million less than the 62-59 cast in 2004. It was forecast to be record turnout, but it disappointed by failing to eclipse 2004.
Fresh Cracks...